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55 个雪场 × 2 个海拔 × 9 档升温情景,跑在一台 t4g.medium 攒下来、不花就蒸发的 CPU 积分上。数据是 NASA POWER 再分析的 41 个雪季(1984–2025)。任意时刻的数字都有效,跑得越久越准。

雪季可靠性排行 · 山脚采样点 · 全期 1984–2025 · 按 +2°C 的 P100 降序生成于 2026-08-06 08:21 JST

#	雪场	区域	平均雪被日现今	P100 现今	P100 +2°C	P100 +4°C	正月可滑 +2°C	粉雪日 +2°C	模拟次数
1	Shiga Kogen (Okushiga)	Nagano	138	99%	87%	46%	74%	4	706016
2	Asahidake Ropeway	Hokkaido	144	98%	84%	61%	43%	1	706080
3	Sapporo Kokusai	Hokkaido	137	99%	82%	47%	59%	1	706080
4	Kiroro	Hokkaido	133	97%	78%	38%	53%	1	706080
5	Ontake 2240	Kiso	119	81%	53%	12%	22%	3	706016
6	Sapporo Teine	Hokkaido	118	80%	48%	12%	32%	0	706080
7	Rusutsu	Hokkaido	120	86%	47%	5%	29%	0	706080
8	Hoshino Tomamu	Hokkaido	107	56%	40%	13%	14%	1	706080
9	Furano	Hokkaido	103	58%	37%	9%	24%	0	706080
10	Hakkoda Ropeway	Tohoku	111	77%	27%	1%	20%	1	706080
11	Naeba当日往返	Joetsu	109	67%	26%	0%	23%	2	706080
12	Niseko Grand Hirafu	Hokkaido	109	71%	24%	0%	21%	0	706080
13	Marunuma Kogen	Gunma	101	52%	18%	2%	7%	2	706016
14	Sahoro	Hokkaido	80	37%	10%	0%	4%	1	706080
15	Tazawako	Tohoku	99	51%	6%	0%	6%	1	706080
16	Tanigawadake Tenjindaira当日往返	Gunma	96	48%	5%	0%	6%	1	706016
17	Sugadaira Kogen	Nagano	84	26%	5%	0%	5%	1	706016
18	Madarao Kogen	Nagano	86	37%	3%	0%	5%	1	706016
19	Hakuba Cortina	Hakuba	81	33%	1%	0%	4%	1	706048
20	Zao Onsen	Tohoku	71	9%	1%	0%	4%	1	706080
21	Takasu Snow Park	Gifu	69	14%	1%	0%	6%	1	706016
22	Dynaland	Gifu	69	14%	1%	0%	6%	1	706016
23	Kusatsu Onsen	Gunma	72	9%	1%	0%	1%	1	706016
24	Ryuoo Ski Park	Nagano	79	30%	1%	0%	3%	1	706016
25	Meiho	Gifu	64	12%	0%	0%	5%	1	706016
26	Kagura当日往返	Joetsu	81	30%	0%	0%	3%	1	706080
27	Geto Kogen	Tohoku	56	5%	0%	0%	2%	1	706080
28	Grandeco Snow Resort	Tohoku	52	1%	0%	0%	0%	1	706080
29	Tsugaike Kogen	Hakuba	72	23%	0%	0%	3%	1	706080
30	Appi Kogen	Tohoku	68	7%	0%	0%	0%	1	706080
31	Nozawa Onsen	Nagano	73	22%	0%	0%	2%	1	706048
32	Kawaba当日往返	Gunma	37	1%	0%	0%	0%	1	706016
33	Akakura Kanko	Myoko	57	10%	0%	0%	1%	1	706080
34	Alts Bandai	Tohoku	13	0%	0%	0%	0%	0	706080
35	Aomori Spring	Tohoku	5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0	706080
36	Biwako Valley	Shiga	13	0%	0%	0%	0%	1	706016
37	Charmant Hiuchi	Myoko	26	0%	0%	0%	0%	0	706080
38	Daisen White Resort	Tottori	6	0%	0%	0%	0%	0	705984
39	Fujimi Panorama当日往返	Yatsugatake	5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0	706016
40	GALA Yuzawa当日往返	Joetsu	38	1%	0%	0%	1%	1	706080
41	Hakuba Goryu & 47	Hakuba	32	0%	0%	0%	1%	0	706080
42	Hakuba Happo-one	Hakuba	33	0%	0%	0%	1%	0	706080
43	Hakuba Iwatake	Hakuba	32	0%	0%	0%	1%	0	706048
44	Hunter Mountain Shiobara当日往返	Tochigi	24	0%	0%	0%	0%	1	706016
45	Hyonosen Hachi-Kita	Hyogo	13	0%	0%	0%	0%	1	705984
46	Ishiuchi Maruyama当日往返	Joetsu	22	0%	0%	0%	0%	0	706080
47	Iwappara当日往返	Joetsu	46	3%	0%	0%	1%	1	706080
48	Joetsu Kokusai当日往返	Joetsu	15	0%	0%	0%	0%	0	706080
49	Karuizawa Prince当日往返	Nagano	37	0%	0%	0%	0%	1	706016
50	Lotte Arai	Myoko	7	0%	0%	0%	0%	0	706080
51	Maiko Snow Resort当日往返	Joetsu	22	0%	0%	0%	0%	0	706080
52	Muikamachi Hakkaisan当日往返	Joetsu	37	1%	0%	0%	1%	1	706080
53	Myoko Suginohara	Myoko	61	14%	0%	0%	2%	1	706080
54	Nekoma Mountain North	Tohoku	33	0%	0%	0%	0%	1	706080
55	Norn Minakami当日往返	Gunma	4	0%	0%	0%	0%	0	706016

模型:度日雪被水量平衡(SWE 记账,参数系综 DDF 2.5–5.5 / 雨雪分界 0.5–1.5°C / 融雪基温 ±0.5°C / 气温递减率 5–7°C·km⁻¹ / CC 降水放大 0–7%·°C⁻¹),对再分析逐日气温与降水做雪季重采样蒙特卡洛。数据出处:NASA POWER (MERRA-2 reanalysis ~50km, daily UTC, PRECTOTCORR gauge-corrected; elevations reconciled in-model via lapse-rate ensemble)(取于 2026-08-05)。升温为均匀叠加的情景近似,坐标与海拔为近似值,粗格点内相邻雪场仅由海拔区分,日本海侧低海拔豪雪带的绝对天数被低估。结论只用于相对比较与娱乐,不构成雪场运营或出行建议。完整网格(山顶采样点、0.5°C 步进、前半/后半时代切片)见 /api/results。机器:t4g.medium,burst 档全速但 nice 19 + cpu-shares 2,对其他服务自然退让;cruise 档闭环钉住 CPU 积分余额,只花不攒白不攒的赠送算力。聚合结果周期性 checkpoint 到宿主卷,重启接续。

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